The last time I blogged about
an upcoming season of Survivor that was all returning players, I did a sort of
cast assessment on them. I’m going to do that again this time starting out my
various predictions with how that cast will meld and then going into each
player’s potential chances of winning. I am going to predict how far I think
that they will make it based on various factors. We’ll see if existing patterns
continue into this season or not. So let’s start with each player and how I
think that they will do in this upcoming season.
Jeff Varner is from Australia
and Cambodia. He made the merge but not the jury then was voted out before the
merge. Contestants from Australia have done quite well as returning players. To
date, every season with a player from Australia has had one of those players
reach the finale. I don’t know if this will happen again or not. Another
pattern to look for is the fact that, so far, every three time player has made
the merge twice. Since Jeff has made the merge once and not the other time, I
think that he might actually make the merge again. I think that he’ll be on the
jury.
Sandra played Pearl Islands
and Heroes versus Villains. She won both seasons. Could she win a third? I
doubt it, actually. If the other players are smart, they’d get rid of her fast.
But I don’t know if they would want to get rid of her. They could see her as
weak in competitions. Of course, some might be foolish enough to think that
they could beat her. I still think that ultimately, the players will get rid of
her early into the game. If that doesn't happen, then they aren't as good players as the title for this season suggests.
Cirie was in Panama,
Micronesia, and Heroes versus Villains. She has made the jury twice and was
voted out before the merge a second time. To date there have been only two four
time players. They have made the merge three times and were voted out premerge
once. Does this mean that she’ll make the merge this time around? But could she
make it all the way to the end? We'll find out for sure later. I would say that she might be a finalist this
season.
Ozzy played in Cook Islands,
Micronesia, and South Pacific. He made the merge three different times. One of
those times, he was a finalist. The other two times, he was on the jury. Now he
seems to have a worse and worse edit each time he plays, going first from a
strong player who almost won the game, to a bitter jury member, and then to an
egotistical maniac. This could wind up being his worst season yet. While he
will certainly help his tribe win before the merge, the moment they suspect
that the merge is coming, he could wind up out of the game faster than you can
say Double Redemption Island. I say that this will be the first time that he
won’t make the merge.
JT played in Tocantins and
Heroes versus Villains. He won the first time and made the jury the second
time, being the first former winner to be on the jury in another season. His
dumb move that destroyed the heroes tribe in his second season is the reason that
he has a lot of redemption to go after. Will he be more of the player he was
the first time around or the player he was the second time around? Knowing that
this is his third time playing, he’ll probably be a totally different player. I
see him making the jury again as I just don’t see him being taken out before
the merge just yet.
Andrea was in Redemption
Island and Caramoan. She made the jury both times. For some reason, I just
don’t think that she will be relevant to the final game this time around as I
think that she will be gone before the merge.
Troyzan played in One World.
He made the jury. He was a candidate for Cambodia, but the fans didn’t vote him
in. I’d say that his main obstacle to overcome is the fact that he can be
annoying. If he can get over that and be a better player, then he’ll do well.
But I don’t think that he’ll make the merge.
Malcolm played in Philippines
and Caramoan. He made the jury both times. He had an advantage the last time he
played since others hadn’t seen his season yet. (This will be important this
season regarding two other players that I’ll get to.) I see no reason why he
would do poorly. In fact, I see him becoming a finalist this time around. He
may also be my favorite going into this.
Brad played Blood versus Water.
He was voted out before the merge. He was considered for Cambodia, but the fans
didn’t vote him to the cast. If he could actually get over his careless
mistakes, he could be a better player this time around. But I’m not sure if he
can or not. I won't say once a failure, always a failure as I know that the rule doesn't always work. But it is something to be worried about, the original placement. I’ll say that he’ll be out before the merge again.
Ciera played in Blood versus
Water and Cambodia. She made the merge and jury both time. She has a villainous
way of playing the game and it could get her far into the game again. I say
that she will make the jury again.
Sarah played Cagayan. She made
the jury and was the first person voted out after the merge. It is hard to
track players like that in future seasons. But I’m willing to believe in her
chances this time around. I say that she will make the merge and jury again.
Tony played in Cagayan. He won
the game due to a very bull headed way of playing the game. I’m not sure how
someone can be that aggressive and win. (Maybe he took the advice of
cheerleaders?) Since these people will know his type of game play going into
this season, I have the feeling that he won’t make the merge this time around.
Hali played Worlds Apart. She
made the jury that time around. I do not have high hopes for her. While she
might do well this time around, I just don’t think that she will. I see her as
one of the game’s early boots and she’ll be gone long before the merge.
Sierra played Worlds Apart.
She made the finale and wound up on the jury. I think that she will make it to
the jury again, although I’m not sure if she’ll make it as far as the finale
again. I just hope that we see more of her this time around if she does make it
far.
Caleb played Kaoh Rong. He
didn’t make the merge as he was medically evacuated long before he even
attended tribal council while trying to compete in a challenge. I’m not sure if
he can make it far into the game this time around, but I think that he’ll be on
the jury.
Debbie played Kaoh Rong. She
made the jury after being blindsided by such a crazy tribal council and episode
that you might not even have known that she was the target going into it. I see
no reason why she would fail this time around, unless she becomes like Sugar
did the second time around and wind up annoying her tribemates and be voted out
really early. Regardless, I still see her as making the jury again this time
around since she actually knows how to play.
Tai played Kaoh Rong. He
became a finalist but got no jury votes. He betrayed the wrong people and was
aligned with the wrong people in the first place. I’m not sure how he’ll do the
second time around, but I think that he’ll make the jury this time.
Aubry played Koah Rong. She
was a finalist but lost to the jury because her game play was mostly kept
hidden from the other players. It seems that a lot of fans were excessively
butt hurt by her loss which I find weird still as I don’t understand why people
like her. I don’t want her to last long this time around and I don’t think that
she will. If people know that she’s playing a good game, they’re likely to vote
her out because of it. I don’t think that she’ll make the merge this time
around.
Michaela played the most
recent season before this, namely Millennials versus Gen X. She did not make
the merge, but was one vote away from doing so (if I’m remembering right). She
and Zeke have the advantage of being unknown to the other contestants this
season. That is partly why I feel that she will make the jury this time around.
Zeke also played the most
recent season with Michaela. He made the jury and could have made it farther
had his alliance not turned on him. I feel that he could do quite well this
time around as the other players wouldn’t know who he is. I say that he will be
a finalist this time around.
Predictions: Premerge boots-
Sandra, Ozzy, Andrea, Troyzan, Brad, Tony, Hali, Aubry; Jury members- Jeff
Varner, JT, Ciera, Sarah, Sierra, Caleb, Debbie, Tai, Michaela; Finalists- Cirie,
Malcolm, Zeke.
There are different things to
look out for going into this season: Jeff could be the first three time player
to never make it to the jury phrase of the game if he gets voted out early
again. Sandra would be one of only three people to play three or more seasons
and never be on a jury if she defies the odds and becomes a finalist again or
if she is voted out before the jury starts forming. Cirie, Ozzy, Andrea,
Malcolm, and Ciera could all potentially serve on their third jury this season,
something that only one other contestant has done those far.
More things: Ozzy is the first
contestant to ever play as a new player, a half newbie and returning player
season, a one returnee per tribe season, and now an all returning player
season. If Ozzy is voted out, he’ll break his own record for most times voted
out. Andrea and Cirie could potentially tie his record if they are voted out
and he is not. If JT is voted out before the jury, he’ll join four other
players in the club of finalist, jury member, and premerge boot. The same can
be said for Ozzy if he is voted out before the jury or Cirie if she becomes a
finalist. Sandra, Tony, Caleb, Tai, and Aubry have not been voted out in
previous seasons, so that’s something to look out for.
I’m not sure that there’s
anything else for me to say in this blog post. I hope that you like my
potential predictions of how the cast will do this season. Will I be right?
Wrong? Both? We’ll see what, if anything, ends up happening this time around.
Whatever one predicts might be accurate or far off. For now, this is Adam
Decker, signing off.